We are 161 days away from the start of production for the Fisker Ocean, and reservations are projected to exceed 70,000 by November 17th at the current rate.
As compared to 2021, the Fisker Ocean reservation rate continues at a pace of 400% on a daily basis. This follows a successful global reveal of the all-electric Fisker Ocean SUV. Not to mention the “Feel the Ocean” marketing campaign. Both were launched by the company at the Los Angeles Auto Show in November 2021.
As a result, reservations have skyrocketed from 20,600 in November 2021 to over 50,000 reservations as of yesterday. The total reservation gain in this 6-month period nearly exceeds 30,000 reservations. During this six month period, we’ve seen an average monthly gain of roughly 5,000 Fisker Ocean reservations.
161 Days from Start of Production
We put together projections to find out where Fisker Ocean reservations are headed. We are 161 days away from November 17, 2021. This is the start of production for the Fisker Ocean. That is a full five months away and then some.
We are going to assume the current monthly rate of reservations drops from 5,000 to 4,000 per month. We don’t expect this to happen, but want to be conservative. Fisker continues its marketing campaign as of this writing. We’re still seeing ads on Google, Facebook, and Instagram.
In the table below, the unhighlighted parts are actual reservation numbers reported by Fisker. The highlighted portion are monthly projected reservation counts. This assumes the company continues to add 4,000 Fisker Ocean reservations per month.
Exceeding 70,000 Reservations
By November 17, 2022, the company has the potential to reach over 70,000 Fisker Ocean reservations. With current Fisker Ocean reservations over 50,000, the company will get there if it adds 4,000 reservations per month. That’s just 20,000 more reservations until start of production. At this rate, Fisker will completely sell out of their Fisker Ocean production capacity for all of 2023 and part of 2024.
Since the company plans to produce Fisker Ocean One and Extreme before Ultra and Sport, the average selling price (ASP) will be higher in the first 1 to 2 years. The ASP is hard to predict in the short-term. Fisker acknowledges this in their latest investor presentation. It is based on industry norms.
With 70,000 Fisker Oceans produced by 2024, projected revenue will be nearly $4.19 Billion USD. Fisker reported a meager $0.01 million in revenue the latest quarter. That means we should expect Fisker’s revenue is going to skyrocket just like its revenue numbers. Of course, this assumes an ASP of $59,900 and converting all reservation holders.
Fisker Ocean Reservation Projections
| End of Month (EOM) | Reservations (Actual vs. Projected) |
|---|---|
| November 2021 | 20,600 |
| December 2021 | 22,400 |
| January 2022 | 27,700 |
| February 2022 | 33,100 |
| March 2022 | 40,300 |
| April 2022 | 45,600 |
| May 2022 | 49,600 |
| Announced June 8 | 50,000+ |
| June 2022 | 53,600 |
| July 2022 | 57,600 |
| August 2022 | 61,600 |
| September 2022 | 65,600 |
| October 2022 | 69,600 |
| November 2022 (Start of Production, Nov. 17th) | 73,600 |
This guest blog post is written by Connor S. He is an economics and environmental studies double major at the University of Connecticut, is a Fisker Ocean reservation holder, and holds a long position in Fisker shares.
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